Indian foreign secretary’s hasty visit to Bangladesh misfires

"The visit signals India’s concerns over Bangladesh’s deepening ties with China and highlights the fragile balance in South Asia’s geopolitical landscape."

The Indian foreign secretary, Harsh Vardhan Shringla’s hastily arranged and sudden visit to Dhaka, is shrouded in mystery. The centerpiece of the visit was his audience with Sheikh Hasina. Not a word has come out of the Bangladesh Prime Minister’s Office, not even who was present at the important meeting. The Indian side has been equally silent. Many, including this writer, wanted to know if the Indian high commissioner, Riva Ganguly, was present. A picture of Sheikh Hasina and the Indian foreign secretary in a tête-à-tête without masks, circulated in the media, revealed that it was taken during his visit to Dhaka in March.

Speculative reports have emerged in both Bangladesh and Indian media, owing to the silence from both sides about what transpired at the Bangladesh PMO. The Indian media, however, concluded unanimously that the visit was successful and would help cement traditional ties. The Hindu, one of India’s most credible English daily newspapers, reported that the Bangladesh prime minister and the Indian foreign secretary discussed a two-year roadmap for Bangladesh-India relations.

Bangladesh’s foreign secretary, Masud Bin Momen, described the visit as normal, undertaken in the conduct of bilateral relations. He stated that he and his Indian counterpart had discussed India’s offer of its COVID-19 vaccine and transshipment issues during their meeting. Bangladesh’s foreign minister, Dr. AKA Momen, who was away in Sylhet, emphasized the vaccine as the main reason for the visit.

However, the blackout of any news from the PMO makes it apparent that whatever else was covered in the media regarding Shringla’s visit did not capture its core purpose. The visit was far from normal, contrary to what the Bangladesh foreign secretary claimed. One certainty remains: the visit occurred amid significant strains in Bangladesh-India relations due to Bangladesh’s increasing tilt toward China, as evidenced by several developments.

The claim by The Hindu that Sheikh Hasina discussed a two-year roadmap of bilateral relations with Shringla was an insult to Bangladesh, given the foreign secretary’s bureaucratic position. Shringla arrived in a chartered aircraft, an unusual gesture underscoring New Delhi’s urgency. However, his role was merely that of a messenger, conveying New Delhi’s concerns about Bangladesh’s deepening engagement with China. This concern is not new; similar efforts were made in 2014 to dissuade Dhaka from moving closer to Beijing after Sheikh Hasina’s visit to China.

Between 2014 and the present, significant shifts have occurred in Bangladesh-India relations. New Delhi’s disengagement during Bangladesh’s 2018 election and the subsequent rise of China’s influence marked a turning point. Despite Sheikh Hasina’s efforts to maintain friendly ties, New Delhi’s missteps—including the National Register of Citizens (NRC), the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), and anti-Muslim rhetoric from Indian leaders—have alienated Bangladesh.

China’s strategic moves, including a $1 billion offer for the Teesta River restoration project and overtures to opposition leaders, further deepened its influence in Bangladesh. Shringla’s visit was an attempt to counter this influence but lacked preparation and respect for Bangladesh’s growing agency.

Sheikh Hasina managed the visit deftly, emphasizing Bangladesh’s sovereignty. Reports of her keeping Shringla waiting highlighted the shift in dynamics. Bangladesh is no longer willing to be taken lightly, and New Delhi must recalibrate its approach to regain its influence.

To improve relations, India must acknowledge the impact of Hindutva policies, the NRC, and the CAA on Bangladesh’s Muslim-majority population. Addressing these concerns with sincerity and respect, along with a change in its overall attitude, will be critical for the future of Bangladesh-India relations.

(This article was originally published in Mainstream Weekly.)